Crime in Dallas isn’t as random as you may think. Here’s how police can predict it.
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Known as risk terrain modeling, emerging predictive policing technology, is part of the chief's crime prevention plan.
A casual glance at a crime map of Dallas suggests the violence that barreled through the city last year was aimless.
But a more detailed look at North Dallas reveals a high-risk setting for gun violence stems in part from a concentration of used-goods stores, apartment complexes and car washes. In southeast Dallas, the constellation of motels, gas stations and pharmacies serves as another prime location.
Those conclusions were based on an analysis by the Child Poverty Action Lab, a Dallas-based nonprofit focused on improving the lives of kids. The organization released its findings exclusively to The Dallas Morning News.
The data comes from emerging predictive police technology known as risk terrain modeling. The thesis behind the algorithm, developed during the last decade by two Rutgers University professors, is that environmental factors have an outsize influence on crime and that small informed changes to neighborhoods can prevent it.
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2025 Rental Housing Needs Assessment
The 2025 Rental Housing Needs Assessment establishes a shared fact base on rental affordability, supply, and opportunity in the City of Dallas.
- Dallas faces a 46,000-unit shortage of rental homes affordable to very low-income households earning ≤50% of Area Median Income (AMI). Since CPAL first published this report in 2023, the gap has grown by more than 12,000 units.
- Between 2021 and 2023, the number of rental units priced below $1,000 per month was cut in half — a loss of over 50,000 units. Today, 90% of affordable units for low-income renters are unsubsidized and vulnerable to market pressures.
- Half of all renters spend more than 30% of their income on housing, including 75% of single parents with children and 65% of senior renters. Extremely low-income renters spend, on average, 78% of their income on housing, leaving little room for other necessities.
2025 Rental Housing Needs Assessment
The 2025 Rental Housing Needs Assessment establishes a shared fact base on rental affordability, supply, and opportunity in the City of Dallas.
- Dallas faces a 46,000-unit shortage of rental homes affordable to very low-income households earning ≤50% of Area Median Income (AMI). Since CPAL first published this report in 2023, the gap has grown by more than 12,000 units.
- Between 2021 and 2023, the number of rental units priced below $1,000 per month was cut in half — a loss of over 50,000 units. Today, 90% of affordable units for low-income renters are unsubsidized and vulnerable to market pressures.
- Half of all renters spend more than 30% of their income on housing, including 75% of single parents with children and 65% of senior renters. Extremely low-income renters spend, on average, 78% of their income on housing, leaving little room for other necessities.
2025 Rental Housing Needs Assessment
The 2025 Rental Housing Needs Assessment establishes a shared fact base on rental affordability, supply, and opportunity in the City of Dallas.
- Dallas faces a 46,000-unit shortage of rental homes affordable to very low-income households earning ≤50% of Area Median Income (AMI). Since CPAL first published this report in 2023, the gap has grown by more than 12,000 units.
- Between 2021 and 2023, the number of rental units priced below $1,000 per month was cut in half — a loss of over 50,000 units. Today, 90% of affordable units for low-income renters are unsubsidized and vulnerable to market pressures.
- Half of all renters spend more than 30% of their income on housing, including 75% of single parents with children and 65% of senior renters. Extremely low-income renters spend, on average, 78% of their income on housing, leaving little room for other necessities.