Crime in Dallas isn’t as random as you may think. Here’s how police can predict it.
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Known as risk terrain modeling, emerging predictive policing technology, is part of the chief's crime prevention plan.
A casual glance at a crime map of Dallas suggests the violence that barreled through the city last year was aimless.
But a more detailed look at North Dallas reveals a high-risk setting for gun violence stems in part from a concentration of used-goods stores, apartment complexes and car washes. In southeast Dallas, the constellation of motels, gas stations and pharmacies serves as another prime location.
Those conclusions were based on an analysis by the Child Poverty Action Lab, a Dallas-based nonprofit focused on improving the lives of kids. The organization released its findings exclusively to The Dallas Morning News.
The data comes from emerging predictive police technology known as risk terrain modeling. The thesis behind the algorithm, developed during the last decade by two Rutgers University professors, is that environmental factors have an outsize influence on crime and that small informed changes to neighborhoods can prevent it.
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An Underutilized Housing Affordability Tool: Homestead Exemptions
CPAL examines homestead exemption access in Dallas County — who’s claiming, who isn’t, and how much money eligible homeowners could realize if they claimed this...
- ~57K residential properties in Dallas County may be eligible for the homestead exemption but have not yet claimed it, for an estimated total benefit of ~$310M.
- ~40K properties in low-income and very low-income census tracts in Dallas County may be eligible for the homestead exemption but have not yet claimed it, for an estimated total benefit of ~$200M, or ~$5,000 per household.
- While an estimated 95% of eligible households in high-income census tracts claim their homestead exemption, only 81% of households in very low-income census tracts claim their homestead exemption.
CPAL Partner Spotlight: Dallas Eviction Advocacy Center
What if real-time data could help stop evictions before they happen?
- In this CPAL Partner Spotlight, we highlight how the Dallas Eviction Advocacy Center (DEAC) is using eviction filing data from the Child Poverty Action Lab (CPAL) to execute a bold strategy: providing legal defense for every tenant, in every court, every day.
- With over 40,000 eviction filings each year in Dallas County, the stakes are high — and so is the potential for impact. CPAL’s real-time data allows DEAC to identify eviction filings as soon as they’re submitted, reach out to tenants proactively, and prepare legal defenses before they ever walk into court.
Can a cleanup plan from Philadelphia work in South Dallas? What $300,000 has done so
CPAL and key partners are using data to remediate blight in the Mill City neighborhood.
- Many Dallas neighborhoods have extensive blight, which signals systemic disinvestment and invites harm.
- Blight has become a focal point of citywide investment in many cities across the country to accelerate programs to re-green vacant lots.